It will be over only after the baby boom finishes its spending and productivity cycles around late 2009-mid-2010. But the difference was that this was a shakeout and consolidation in the middle of the explosive new-technology cycle and was followed by continued spending and productivity from the rising Henry Ford generation. The good news is that the fundamental trends we track and forecast have not changed despite the crash of 2000-2002. This guy has been wrong more than right. At the same time, I have faith in American and human greed and can therefore assume that we will still somehow find a way to increase long-term revenues and profits regardless of the short-term problems, either by cutting costs heavily or focusing in growth countries like China, Japan, India, etc. Dent gives advice on everything from investment strategies to real estate cycles, and shows not only how bright our future will be but how best to profit from it.
The Current Technology S-Curve and Shakeout Figure 1. Since the invention of electricity, cars, telephones, and many other crucial new technologies in the late 1800s, a new economy emerged around the assembly line and the modern corporation, which brought standardized products increasingly into the mass-market price range, along with factory and office jobs and suburban living. And that was the greatest investment opportunity of the last century. And these cycles could hit right when you need retirement money the most! It takes a few years for such a shakeout in the growth of new technology and business sectors to consolidate as it did from late 1919 through early 1922. And that's the area we gave for our strongest buy signal again in late September-early October 2002. This bestseller has some methodology problems and it is written awkwardly, but it might nonetheless be true. The Crash of 1919-1921 and the Roaring Twenties: Uncanny Parallels to the Early-2000s Crash and the Roaring 2000s to Follow A closer look at the tech wreck of late 1919-early 1922 will give great insights into the incredible tech correction in 2000-2002 and the unprecedented investment opportunity it has created.
Because the crash and slowdown of 2000-2002 represented an extreme correction and a natural stage in the rapid emergence of new technologies during an ongoing economic boom, much like the extreme 1987 crash and the aftershock in 1990. The reasons productivity rates were so high are twofold. The good news again is that the path is clear for stronger advances until mid- to late 2006 before the next minor cycle hits. The Next Great Bubble Boom — part crystal ball, part f For over fifteen years, New York Times bestselling author Harry S. Digital cameras are following an S-curve similar to that of broadband, and wi-fi is just emerging at rapid rates. The Next Great Bubble Boom - part crystal ball, part financial planner - offers a comprehensive forecast for the next two decades, showing new models for predicting the future behaviour of the economy, inflation, large- and small-cap stocks, bonds, key sectors, and so on. A 50% overestimate can hardly be called conservative at any a stretch.
Why was the Roaring Twenties the best decade in United States history for stock returns? After the invention of the automobile in 1886, car companies first started to commercialize around 1900 Figure 1. The rest of the story is history. Unfortunately, he was quite wrong in his market predictions on where the Dow and Nasdaq would be by the end of his predicted cyclical bull market period of 2005 to 2009. The Dow finally bottomed at 7286 on October 9. Despite not seeing a bubble anywhere near the degree of the tech stocks, home-building stocks crashed 60% in the early 1990s. For over fifteen years, New York Times bestselling author Harry S. The Tire and Rubber Index fell 72% Figure 1.
Hence, even if you missed the great buying opportunity in late 2002, the best of the bull market is still ahead! We will examine all of the opportunities for you to personally leverage this last stage of the great boom in the many chapters to come. We've been the most bullish forecasters and investment strategists since the late 1980s when we discovered some very simple, but potent new tools for predicting economic trends -- tools that economists largely reject because they are too simple and everyday people can understand them. But autos and the early home appliances went from 10% to 90% in half the time, from 1914 to 1928. The intraday bottom was right in the middle, at 7400. We have been and are continuing to predict that this coming decade will be the greatest in history and will closely parallel the Roaring Twenties -- the last time a major technology revolution moved fully mainstream while a new generation hit the peak of its spending and productivity cycle. We never forecasted that a whole new group of dot-com companies would suddenly create new brand names and take over the world.
New generations create very predictable boom-and-bust cycles in our economy and they occur about every forty years, as we can see by looking at the Dow adjusted for inflation in Figure 1. We find consistently that people readily understand this human, demographic approach to forecasting. Most decades start by consolidating the strong gains from the previous decade before moving on again, due to a recurring corporate planning cycle that we will cover in Chapter 3. The Internet hit the key 10% penetration point of U. In Chapter 2 we will show a channel technique for projecting the Nasdaq that also points to around 13,000 by the end of this decade. In fact, we will show that Intel's stock chart from 1992 to 2000 looked almost identical to General Motors' from 1912 to 1919.
This next stage also brings the continuation of massive power in semiconductor chips along Moore's Law and will bring voice activation, which is already beginning to become a reality, as we forecasted. For over fifteen years, New York Times bestselling author Harry S. Then fewer surviving companies compete for the final 50% to 90% growth phase in a Maturity Boom. In taking a look at past booms and busts, Dent compares our current state to that of the crash of 1920-21, and the years ahead of us to the Roaring Twenties. On February 1, 2000, we warned in our newsletter that the Internet stocks were approaching a major top. Another key point made in The Roaring 2000s was that every second generation, or about every eighty years, radical new technologies and a new economy emerge, as you can see in Figure 1.
That is the harsh reality of real-life investing. Harry Dent made a name for himself in his earlier years predicting major market moves such as the Japanese slow down and the Tech wreck. In 1989, we forecasted that the United States would enter a two-year slowdown in 1990 and 1991. For over fifteen years international bestselling author Harry S. The first important insight we can give you after the crash of 2000-2002 is that this economic boom is not over.
Forlagets beskrivelse For over 15 years, New York Times bestselling author Harry S. Second, radical new technologies were in their peak years of mass-market penetration, moving from 50% to 90% of urban households. There was even the first modern terrorist strike: a bomb exploded on Wall Street in late 1920. The Next Great Bubble Boom offers a comprehensive forecast for the next two decades, showing new models for predicting the future behavior of the economy, inflation, large and small cap stocks, bondsd, key sectors, and more. Voice activation means we can increasingly tell computers what we want without a keyboard and complex commands.